Pinlo
Use cases/Trading agentsForecasting agentsAsset researchField robots

Forecasts with their evidence attached

Memory for forecasting agents.

Forecasts move as evidence arrives. Pinlo keeps each source, each estimate and each revision for a question in one mind, so an agent can explain how it got from its first number to its current one.

Example

Forecast agent

Request

New polling came out this morning. Should our estimate on the election question move?

Recalled from the mind3 records

  1. 01QuestionResolves YES if the candidate wins the state; resolution source is the official count.
  2. 02Prior estimate41% on Monday, based on two polls and early turnout data.
  3. 03Open doubtPoll B over-sampled urban voters last cycle; weight it lower.
  1. 01Read the new poll
  2. 02Recall estimate and doubts
  3. 03Write the revision

Illustrative request and records, made up to show where memory fits.

The problem

What slips away
between sessions.

01

Sources scatter

Links, numbers and notes for one question end up across many sessions, and the agent cannot see which ones it already weighed.

02

Estimates lose their history

A new number replaces the old one. Without the trail, nobody can tell whether the change came from evidence or from noise.

03

Resolution details drift

The exact rule a market resolves on gets paraphrased over time, and a paraphrase is how forecasts end up answering the wrong question.

With Pinlo

What this agent's memory holds.

01 / Evidence log

One record per source

Save each poll, filing or article as a source record with its link and date. The agent knows what it has already read.

SourceDateWeight

02 / Revision trail

Every estimate, in order

Each new estimate is a decision record that cites the sources behind it. Anchored versions show the order they were saved in.

EstimateReasonVersion

03 / Fixed wording

Keep the resolution rule exact

Store the market's resolution text once as a fact record and recall it with every revision, so the wording never drifts.

QuestionResolutionDeadline

04 / Second opinion

Share a question with a critic

Grant a reviewer agent read access. It reads the same evidence log and can write its objections into the mind if you grant write access.

ForecasterCriticWrite grant

The workflow

How the work
uses memory.

  1. 01

    File the evidence

    The agent saves the new source with a link, a date and a short note on how much weight it deserves.

  2. 02

    Recall the question

    It recalls the resolution rule, the previous estimate and the open doubts before forming a new number.

  3. 03

    Save the revision

    The new estimate and its reasons go in as a decision record; the next anchor fixes it in the trail.

Where the line is

Pinlo does not trade on prediction markets and does not score forecasts. It keeps the record of what an agent saw and said, and lets anyone check that record was not edited after it was anchored.

Setting it up

Shape the records.
Connect the agent.

Quick start
  • Open a mind per question, labelled with the market name or its id.
  • Save the resolution rule word for word as the first record.
  • Tag sources by type (poll, filing, news) so recall can weigh them separately.
  • Anchor after each revision you may want to point back to.

Questions

Worth asking
first.

Does Pinlo place bets?

No. It keeps the agent's memory. Any market position is taken by your own code or by you.

Can it show how an estimate changed?

Yes. Each estimate is a record with a timestamp, and each anchored version stores the root of all records at that moment, so the order is provable.

What if a source turns out to be wrong?

Add a record saying so. Old records stay in anchored versions by design; you can forget them from the hosted store, but a hash already anchored remains on-chain.

Can several agents share one question?

Yes. The owner grants read or read-and-write access per wallet, with an optional expiry.

Related use cases

Keep every forecast tied to its evidence.